Leaving Afghanistan to the Afghans and Pakhtuns
24. May, 2010 
6 Comments
The secret to success is Pakistan.
Dealing with Afghanistan is getting exponentially difficult. The Mayor of Kabul living in the “forbidden” Arg palace has no clue on how to govern the country. The anti-occupation forces have the run of the country and have repeatedly attacked Kabul and the heart of the US military.
As the insurgents smell victory the attacks have become more and more brazen–the latest onslaught from the capital to one of the largest and most-heavily fortified US bases in Bagram.
The Taliban claimed responsibility Sunday for a nighttime assault on NATO’s base in Kandahar.
- Also Sunday, Afghan officials said the three-day “jirga” to discuss prospects for peace has been postponed again. The gathering was to start on May 29, but now will be held from June 2-4.
- In other violence Sunday, the police chief of Andar district in eastern Ghazni province was killed in a gunbattle with militants.
- The attack at Kandahar was the second Taliban assault on a large military installation in Afghanistan in less than a week.
- On Wednesday, militants attacked the main U.S. military base at Bagram, killing an American contractor.
In a grim reminder of the Vietnamese “Tet Offensive” this new wave of suicide attacks has badly impacted the ISAF’s ability and hampered it much heralded military offensives in Helmand, Kandahar and Paktika provinces. Its not looking good. General McChrystal said so in so many words when he reiterated that “neither side is winning”. If the independent reports are to be believed about 90% of Afghanistan is int he hands of the militants. Some analysis describe the US as a “blind man in a dark room, looking for a dark cat which isn’t there”. Top America, NATO and ISAF military commanders seem to be groping in the dark, trying to in finding a way out of the malaise. Defeated on the battlefield, the losing generals are doing what all defeated generals do–blame others. Of course Pakistan is the favorite whipping boy and North Waziristan the excuse for losing 90% of Afghanistan. Why would the so called Talibans need “sanctuaries” in North Waziristian, if they own all of Afghanistan? But logic doesn’t work with generals who own the media have the Crusaders on their side.
This is a seminal moment in history–for America and for the region.
The Battle of Maiwand and the defeat at Gandawak are persistent reminders to the British on the limits of imperial power and what it can achieve. Lord Curzon took the expedient decision after the defeats and announced the “Back to the Indus” policy–and the British Empire used Afghanistan as a buffer state between imperial Britain and Tzarist Russia.
Perpetual mimetic warfare, brutal occupation and blanket repression strategies are not working any more. The Anti-Occupation forces labeled as the “Taliban” have proposed a “safe exit” to America if it promises to leave. Mr. Karzai asking the owners of Afghanistan to lay down their weapons may be barking up the wrong tree.
International Analysts worldwide are now publicly questioning the so called military doctrines of stemming out of Brussels and Washington. Are they working? The drone have created the worst backlash to bombing in modern history. The Pakistanis have lost 12000 people martyred to the so called “war on terror”. The US has not been free of the risks–and Times Square remains a reminder of the blowback.
The Karzai family’s corruption, the American hubris and the European reluctance to fight keeps the fruits of nation building out of the reach of most of the penury stricken, war affected population of Afghanistan.
Every time a Reaper or Predator drone takes off, the mothers and children of Afghanistan cringe. Its 91 every day for them. Every time it fires its hellfire missiles the dream of peace become less possible. Each hellfire increases Anti-Americanism around the globe.
President Karzai knows many languages, but his best one is schmooze. As Churchill said a very long time ago “you can fool some of the people all the time, all the people some of the time, but not all the people all the time”. President Karzai, speaking from both sides of his mouth– he plays to the Western gallery while lambasting the “Coalition of the Willing” (ISAF, NATO, US etc) for real and perceived war crimes. The question is are the jirgas still on? They were just for show anyway, so hosting them for the American audience doesn’t change the realities on the ground.
The incomprehensible strategy to attain a military solution was clarified by President Obama in Westpoint this week! He is banking on a composite solution. Afghanistan poses are danger to Iran, Pakistan, Russia, the Central Asia republics, and to China. The war-weary conglomeration of tribes has been in war for the past thirty years.
Every year the insurgents launch a “Spring Offensive”. This year was not exception. They code named this years offensive “Al-Fatah” (Victory). The moniker says volumes about their new found confidence.
The US President Barack Obama, and President Karzai face the confidence of the insurgents with trepidation and political expediency–which forces them to deal with the scum of the earth and the drug lords that have preyed on the innocent.
Many doubt the might of the Pakhtuns but they own Afghanistan and the “Coalition of the Willing” does not. President Obama had changed strategies multiple times. Planning a robust Exit Strategy with the Pakistan is the best move yet–as long as he can keep Ms. Clinton’s mouth taped.
Ms. Hillary Clinton has done more harm to peace in West Asia than a gang-rape by a combination of the Geller’s Neo-Nazis and the followers of Robert Spencer.
First of all, Tet of 1968 was huge. The current “spring offensive” isn’t. This looks a lot like several prior years in Afghanistan to me.
But since you and some other people want to compare the two, consider this:
Tet broke the back of the NLF. That was one of the underlying purposes. It cynically used the nationalist aspirations of many thousands of Vietnamese to help the North Vietnamese government eliminate potential political opposition.
Seeing the frightful casualties the Talib fighting groups have suffered in the field during these “offensives,” is it not possible that someone equally cynical and calculating is doing the same thing to them? The question to ask is who would profit the most from the elimination of lower level leaders and fighters?
Pakhton??? what about the rest of afghans??? or are they not afghans..you fool reporter. Your report is simply bias. If you think, the Pakhton can only govern is false.
The title is “Afghans and Pakhtuns”. Did you read the article? Afghan usually means ALL Afghans. Who is the fool here?
Thank you for your feedback. The issue at hand is not the size of the offensive. The Cong did not own 90% of Vietnam. At least the South was in the hands of the South Vietnamese. Afghanistan is owned by the Taliban.
If anything, not enough troops are in Afghanistan to do proper counterinsurgency. My guess is perhaps half, or more, of the troops are logistics personnel who are necessary to wage war but do not participate.
Whereas with the Taliban, show up at someone’s house, put a gun to the man’s head and take his food, then lodge there for the day to hide from the Evil Unbeliever Zionist Crusader forces. (Alternatively, lodge at a sympathizer’s house). Then at night, go out killing “collaborators”, blowing up girls schools and laying IEDs. Sounds like a far cry from the Afghans Kipling wrote about.
It’s certainly easier than setting up (and defending) large compounds or trying to establish a government. The Taliban only did it in the ’90s because nobody liked the warlords, and held the country together with violence and terror..but at least they were Muslim!
It’s always nice to read an article generated by people in different countries. Unique viewpoints, certainly.